06/08/2009

No Change For Interest Rate

The UK's interest rates has remained unchanged today as the Bank of England left the level set at 0.5%.

The Monetary Policy Committee's (MPC) second decision, to expand quantitative easing (QE) at the same time, underlines the caution among policymakers over the strength of the UK's recovery from recession despite recent positive signs.

The institution increased the scale of its 'quantitative easing programme' to boost the money supply by £50 billion to £175 billion.

Quantitative easing is sometimes described as 'printing money', although the central bank actually creates it electronically by increasing the credit in its own bank account.

It is used to stimulate an economy where interest rates are either at, or close to, zero. Normally, a central bank stimulates the economy indirectly by lowering interest rates but when it cannot lower them any further it can attempt to 'seed' the financial system with new money through what is know as quantitative easing.

Today's double initiatives come as official figures and surveys have each shown manufacturers and services firms are at last emerging from recession, while house prices have also risen.

Economists expect the UK to return to growth between July and September but problems in the banking sector could still restrain a recovery, and official estimates showed a disappointing 0.8% fall in output during the second quarter of this year.

However, in a statement explaining the surprise move, the Bank of England said the recession "appears to have been deeper than previously thought" but it said the "pace of decline has slowed" and business surveys suggested the low point in activity was "close at hand".

"Though there are signs that credit conditions may have started to ease, lending to business has fallen and spreads on bank loans remain elevated," it added.

The Bank said: "On the one hand, there is a considerable stimulus still working through from the easing in monetary and fiscal policy and the past depreciation of sterling.

"On the other hand, the need for banks to continue repairing their balance sheets is likely to restrict the availability of credit, and past falls in asset prices and high levels of debt may weigh on spending."

It added: "While some recovery in output growth is in prospect, the margin of spare capacity in the economy is likely to continue to grow for some while yet, bearing down on inflation in the medium term."

The news on QE came in an exchange of letters with Bank Governor Mervyn King with the Chancellor Alistair Darling. He agreed to them increasing the QE threshold to £175 billion as a result of this correspondence.

The MPC's caution underlines how a weak banking sector could yet weigh on recovery despite £6 billion in combined profits from HSBC and Barclays on Monday.

Lloyds Banking Group and nationalised Northern Rock have reported losses of £4 billion and £724 million respectively.

According to official estimates, the UK economy has now shrunk by 5.7% since the first quarter of 2008, over twice that of the early 1990s recession.

(BMcC/KMcA)

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