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21/09/2006
Winter forecast is 'finely-balanced'
Predictions for the weather in the UK this winter are "finely-balanced", Met Office forecasters have warned.
In July, the Met Office suggested that this winter would be milder-than-average and wetter than last year.
However, forecasters have now said that the long-range forecast for this winter across the UK indicates near-average temperatures and an approximately even chance of wetter or drier-than-average conditions for the season as a whole.
The Met Office said that the change was partly due to El Nino conditions becoming established in the Pacific Ocean.
El Nino is a warming in the tropical Pacific Ocean which accompanies a reversal in the trade winds.
It affects the weather and climate across many parts of the globe and is the largest climatic event that occurs on a regular basis anywhere on the planet.
Forecasters said that this is helping to produce a winter forecast that is in the balance and said that these influences could shift probabilities to favour a colder outlook, particularly for late winter 2006/7.
Rob Varley, Head of the Public Weather Service at the Met Office commented: "In July, we issued a first assessment of the winter. This was based on the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) technique and indicated a mild winter.
"However, from September, other forecast data becomes available, allowing us to make a further expert judgement on how the winter is likely to play out. It's interesting to note that the chances of a colder winter have increased slightly in light of recent information, with a focus on the late winter period. We will track this possible trend and update the forecast in coming months as necessary."
(KMcA/EF)
In July, the Met Office suggested that this winter would be milder-than-average and wetter than last year.
However, forecasters have now said that the long-range forecast for this winter across the UK indicates near-average temperatures and an approximately even chance of wetter or drier-than-average conditions for the season as a whole.
The Met Office said that the change was partly due to El Nino conditions becoming established in the Pacific Ocean.
El Nino is a warming in the tropical Pacific Ocean which accompanies a reversal in the trade winds.
It affects the weather and climate across many parts of the globe and is the largest climatic event that occurs on a regular basis anywhere on the planet.
Forecasters said that this is helping to produce a winter forecast that is in the balance and said that these influences could shift probabilities to favour a colder outlook, particularly for late winter 2006/7.
Rob Varley, Head of the Public Weather Service at the Met Office commented: "In July, we issued a first assessment of the winter. This was based on the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) technique and indicated a mild winter.
"However, from September, other forecast data becomes available, allowing us to make a further expert judgement on how the winter is likely to play out. It's interesting to note that the chances of a colder winter have increased slightly in light of recent information, with a focus on the late winter period. We will track this possible trend and update the forecast in coming months as necessary."
(KMcA/EF)
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Northern Ireland WeatherToday:After a dry start this morning rain will spread from the northwest across all parts. This afternoon will be dull with some patchy rain and drizzle. Becoming much milder through the afternoon. Maximum temperature 11 °C.Tonight:A cloudy evening and night with a little light rain or drizzle, perhaps some clear periods developing along the east coast. A very mild night everywhere. Minimum temperature 10 °C.
