12/05/2005

UK consumer sector slowdown larger than expected

The Bank of England chief has today admitted that the effect of the slowdown in the housing market on the consumer sector may have underestimated.

The Bank's Governor, Mervyn King, said that predictions in February by the Monetary Policy Committee, warning of weakness in household spending have "crystallized" to become more marked and have persisted into this year.

Inflation too, has also been stronger than expected, picking up to 1.9%.

Speaking yesterday, Mr King said: "In today's Report, the new central projection is for continuing steady growth with inflation remaining close to the 2% target throughout the forecast period. But the chances of the economy evolving exactly in line with our central projection are very small. So the real issue is the uncertainty about the outlook for inflation, where there are risks in both directions."

He said: "Profit warnings from a number of retailers, business surveys, reports from the high street, and the official data on retail sales all point to an easing of consumer spending. The evidence now suggests that the contribution of consumption to activity growth is lower than for some years. The Committee's central view is for household spending growth to recover, but to remain below the average of recent years."

However, the Bank of England said that GDP growth remained around trend, as the growth of the services sector, which represents around 70% of the economy, stayed firm.

But concern has been raised at a sharper than expected rise in inflation - inside six months inflation has risen from 1.1%; to hit 1.9%. Though the MPC's central projection is that inflation will remain close to the 2% target throughout the forecast period.

The MPC decided at its meeting on Monday to leave the interest rate unchanged at 4.75% for the ninth consecutive month.

Speculation over the economy figures indicates that with consumption set to fall, a rise in interest rates in the short term is unlikely.

(SP)

Related UK National News Stories
Click here for the latest headlines.

14 February 2005
Drop in house prices reported over Christmas period
The latest government figures have shown that overall UK house prices fell in December last year by 0.7%, compared to a 2% rise in the same period last year. Figures published by the Office of the Deputy Prime Minister, showed that UK annual house price inflation in December 2004 was 10.7%, a drop from 13.7% in November.
16 November 2011
Central Bank Warns Of Double Dip
The Bank of England is warning of an increased threat of a double-dip recession next year. The bank said there was a greater chance of the economy contracting in the first three quarters of 2012 compared to previous forecasts, noting the eurozone crisis as the biggest threat to the UK.
05 December 2005
Chancellor slashes UK growth prediction
The Chancellor blamed a bad year for the UK economy as he cut the forecast of UK growth to 1.75% for the year-end. In March, a more upbeat Gordon Brown had predicted UK economic growth of 3-3.5%, but the revised figures were a more 2-2.5% and 2.75-3.25% for 2007.
07 February 2013
Government Abandons GSCE-Scrap Plans
The UK government has abandoned plans to scrap GCSE subjects in England and Wales and replace them with English Baccalaureate Certificates. Education Secretary Michael Gove announced the changes in the Commons. He said the plans had been "a bridge too far". The move follows criticism from MPs and teachers.
13 August 2007
House Prices Rise By 12% In June
UK annual house price inflation in June 2007 was 12.1%, up from 10.8% in May 2007. Annual house price inflation in London was 17.5% in June, up from 14.3% in May. The UK annual house price inflation rate for the 3 months to June was 11.3% and 15.1% in London. The UK house price inflation rate rose from 10.8% in May 2007 to 12.1% in June 2007.