Climate prediction study warns of higher temperature rises

Results from the world's largest climate prediction experiment have suggested that greenhouse gases could cause global temperatures to rise by more than double of previous forecasts.

The experiment, climateprediction.net, warned that average temperatures could eventually rise by up to 11 degrees, even if carbon dioxide levels were limited.

Scientists involved in the project believe that these levels could be reached by the middle of the century, unless greenhouse gas emissions are dramatically reduced.

David Stainforth, from Oxford University, Chief Scientist for climateprediction.net, said: "Our experiment shows that increased levels of greenhouse gases could have a much greater impact on climate than previously thought."

Climateprediction.net project co-ordinator, Dr David Frame, warned that "the possibility of such high responses has profound implications. If the real world response was anywhere near the upper end of our range, even today's levels of greenhouse gases could already be dangerously high."

Funded by the Natural Environment Council and the Department of Trade and Industry's e-Science programme, the collaborative project led by Oxford University involves several UK universities and the Met Office, and 95,000 people from 150 countries worldwide.

Schools, businesses and individuals around the world can download the free climateprediction.net software, which incorporates the Met Office's climate model and runs in the background when computers are not in use. The distributed programme crunches the data on a climate scenario, over the course of a few days or weeks, before reporting the results back to researchers via the Internet.

Participants have so far simulated over four million model years and donated over 8,000 hours of computing time, making the project the world's largest climate modelling experiment to date.

Scientists at Oxford have urged more people to become involved. Mr Stainforth, said: "Having found that these extreme responses are a realistic possibility, we need people's support more than ever to pin down the risk of such strong warming and understand its regional impacts."

An international conference, Stabilisation 2005, proposed by Prime Minister, Tony Blair, will aim to assess the climate response and impacts associated with different greenhouse gases, next week.

(KMcA/SP)