05/08/2004

'Lives saved' through better Met Office forecasting

Property and lives are better protected than ever before from the effect of bad weather through improved forecasting, the Met Office has said today.

Publishing in its Annual Report and Accounts, the better forecasting methods mean that a three-day forecast of today is as good as a one-day forecast was 25 years ago – making it possible to give earlier advance warning of extreme weather.

The report goes on to outline advances in observing and data collection, computer forecasting and collaboration in international research.

A key factor in the improvement is the introduction of the Met Office's more powerful supercomputer, the NEC SX-6. The hi-tech hardware allows better use of more weather observations and ensemble forecasting, a technique that uses multiple computer predictions to help the Met Office to express the degree of confidence in a forecast.

Highlights of the Met Office's year included the accurate forecast of the heat wave in August, during which 30C was exceeded for 10 consecutive days. The office also provided accurate forecasting of the first-ever recorded cyclone in the South Atlantic that hit Brazil in March where early warnings helped to save lives.

John Mitchell, the Met Office Chief Scientist, said: "We are continuing to invest in, and make better use of, our science and technology and we are improving the way we communicate our forecasts and warnings. This investment demonstrates our commitment to provide the very best weather service, not only for the UK, but internationally as well."

(gmcg)

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