12/08/2003

UK inflation shows surprise increase

City analysts have voiced their surprise after today's rise in the month-on-month UK inflation rate - up by 0.1% to 2.9% in July.

According to the latest figures from the Office of National Statistics (ONS), the inflationary pressure was mainly attributed to rises in clothing and footwear retail prices. Rises were also recorded in travel, a sector that is currently experiencing the usual seasonal trend for peak rate fares.

The rise in the inflation rate for the ninth consecutive month, surprised many economic forecasters who had been predicting a slight fall in the rate of inflation.

However, according to the ONS the rate of inflation in the UK remains one of the lowest in Europe since the start of 2000.

As the government target for inflation is 2.5%, the unexpected rise in inflation to 2.9% has fuelled speculation that the next rate change may see an increase in the interest rate.

The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, which sets the lending rate, will be meeting shortly to discuss the September rate. However, it will not be an easy decision. Analysts will be looking at a variety of factors, but the MPC will be noting that the target rate is now three points off a marked departure from the one point variance permitted.

(SP)

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