29/07/2003

Statistical system could expose a new Shipman

Researchers from Imperial College London have developed a statistical system which could have exposed serial killer Harold Shipman as early as 1997.

The researchers collected data from more than 1,000 GPs (including Shipman) or practices over five health authority areas between 1993 and 1999, linking information from death certificates and patient lists. From this they were able to work out how many patients died per GP or practice.

The research team concluded: "If the cumulative difference between the observed mortality and the reference rates exceeded a pre-defined threshold, this signalled a warning that the mortality rates for the GP or practice in question warranted further investigation."

Although the system was developed as a practical response to monitoring issues raised by the Harold Shipman case, it can also be used to monitor variations in the quality of care between GPs and practices.

Dr Paul Aylin, one of the paper's authors, said: "Following the Shipman affair it became clear that no method existed to monitor mortality rates in general practice.

"One use of this system would be to help stop a repeat of the Shipman affair, but tools such as this could also help in monitoring the performance of GPs and their practices by continuously keeping track of mortality rates."

The work was funded by the Shipman Inquiry.

(GMcG)

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