07/05/2003

Researchers say one in five SARS victims could die

A detailed scientific study looking at the SARS virus outbreak in Hong Kong has revealed that the death rate among those contracting the virus may be almost four times higher than was first thought.

Estimates produced by clinical sources put the death rate of SARS sufferers at between 5% and 7%, but a statistical analysis of those admitted to hospital indicates that the numbers of deaths may be as high 20% - one in five.

However, commenting on the article which was published in the Lancet experts point out that the overall figure of those contracting the virus and recovering without hospital treatment is an unknown and unquantifiable number until a full epidemiological population survey is conducted.

As is usual with this type of acute respiratory syndrome, the study found that older people were more at risk. In those over 60 the death rate from SARS was around 43 %, but those under 60 the rate was much lower at 13%.

Yet even this figure is twice the death rate reported by the WHO, who continue to report a death rate from SARS of around 7%.

Health experts have warned that one of the key factors that have exacerbated the spread of the SARS virus is that people are largely asymptomatic for up to five days after contracting the virus. This incubation period means that people carrying the virus are coming into contact with friends, relatives, and work colleagues. Though experts say that the spread patterns of the virus indicate that the apparent risk of contracting the virus is much lower than influenza of the common cold.

As of Tuesday this week, the WHO has reported that there were 6,727 suspected cases of SARS in 31 countries – of whom 2,826 are classed as in recovery. Worst affected countries are China (4,409), Hong Kong (1,646) and Singapore (204).

Globally, 478 people are now known to have died as a result of the disease.

(SP)

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