Second NI Swine Flu Tragedy

The second person to have died in Northern Ireland from swine flu may have been an infant.

Stormont Health Minister Michael McGimpsey said he had been informed by a Trust of a possible death associated with the virus - and while there are no firm details - there's speculation the deceased was a baby.

Last month, a woman from Co Antrim became the first person to die from the virus in Northern Ireland.

Caroline Hoy from Ahoghill passed away in a Northern Ireland hospital and it is understood she had an underlying health condition, believed to be cancer.

Although this death was the first of a person actually within NI, Lee Porter, a soldier from Coleraine, Co Londonderry, died from swine flu at a hospital in Surrey on 31 July.

Mr McGimpsey has also been updating MLAs on the swine flu outbreak in general.

Speaking in the Assembly today he said: "Worldwide there have been over 275,000 cases and over 3,000 deaths.

"Within the UK there have been more than 70 deaths," he continued, but noted that, "the illness continues to be mild and self-limiting, although for some people it can be severe".

"To date, in Northern Ireland we have had 217 laboratory confirmed cases," he explained.

"However, the actual number of cases is much higher with almost 9,000 courses of antivirals prescribed to people clinically diagnosed with swine flu.

"In addition, the number of people consulting their GP with flu-like symptoms is significantly higher than in previous years at this time.

"Up to now, 94 people have been hospitalised with swine flu in Northern Ireland," he said.

Tragically though he continued: "I have also been informed of a second death possibly associated with swine flu.

"Obviously every death is tragic and my thoughts and sympathies are with the family.

"Members will understand and respect that it would not be appropriate for me to make any further comment at this time," he said.

The Minister said that the scientific experts are preparing for a future surge in cases later this year and potentially for a more severe pandemic strain. He said: "We now know more about the virus and its effects and have been able to revise our planning assumptions.

"We have gathered more information from experiences of the pandemic in the UK and internationally.

"This has allowed us to refine our reasonable worst case scenario. Timing of a possible pandemic wave has also been reassessed," he said, noting that, in the worst case scenario, he expected around 30% of the Northern Ireland population to be affected by the virus in a future wave.

"That means around over 500,000 people, or one-third of the population, may become ill with swine flu over the course of the next wave.

"In addition, potentially 5,000 people may be hospitalised due to the virus and up to 525 could die," he cautioned.

"During the peak week, as many as 113,000 people could be affected. These are not predictions, but assumptions, which enable us to plan for the very worst that could happen.

"Scientists have now advised that a substantial peak in the virus may occur in mid or late October," he said.

See: 'Sadness' As Swine Flu Death Revealed

(BMcC/GK)