GFA support falls by a sixth according to report

A poll commissioned by the BBC has revealed that support for the Good Friday Agreement has dropped by over a sixth since the 1998 referendum.

The poll, carried out by PricewaterhouseCoopers on behalf of the BBC's 'Hearts and Minds' programme, surveyed the views of 1,080 people throughout the 18 parliamentary and 26 district council constituencies of Northern Ireland. The poll was taken immediately after Secretary of State John Reid suspended the power-sharing executive.

The survey found that support for the agreement had slipped to 56%, which shows a marked decline in the 71.2% achieved in the 1998 referendum.

Most worryingly of all for the centrist pro-agreement parties, when questioned over the renegotiation of the agreement, respondents appeared to be out of step with the British and Irish governments' view that the agreement is "the only show in town". So much so, that of the pro-agreement nationalists surveyed, 56.5% of SDLP voters and 50.5% of Sinn Fein voters would be prepared to see a renegotiation of the agreement.

For the pro-agreement SDLP and UUP, the findings of the survey will make for difficult reading.

According to the survey, UUP leader David Trimble can only count on one-third of unionists to back his support of the agreement. More than 67% of unionists are now opposed to the agreement, with just over 41% preferring to see direct rule compared to the 24.5% who would prefer to see the return of power sharing.

In terms of electoral support, the UUP shades the hardline DUP's rating by 2% with 22.5% of those surveyed. First Minister David Trimble also stands just 2.8% ahead of the Rev Ian Paisley as being perceived to be the most effective leader of unionism.

But given that the difference between the main unionist blocs is less than the survey's margin of error (2.98%), the battle for unionist hearts and minds is in the balance.

For nationalism, the situation is less than positive for SDLP leader, and former deputy first minister, Mark Durkan.

When asked who was the better leader for nationalism, the majority of respondents named Gerry Adams (41.1%) as their choice – six points ahead of SDLP leader Mark Durkan, despite his sitting as deputy first minister for the past 11 months. And from a party standpoint, Sinn Fein find themselves 2.6% head of the SDLP's 17%.

However, the "breathing space" Dr Reid referred to when suspending the institutions could yet allow pro-agreement parties to shore up support before the definitive survey of Northern Ireland's electorate – the assembly elections in May 2003.

One of the more unusual findings had only 38.3% of nationalists preferring to see Northern Ireland governed as part of a united Ireland. Indeed, marginally more nationalists (0.2%) would prefer to see power sharing.

Hearts and Minds will be screened on BBC1 at 7.30pm tonight.

(GMcG)