Don't write off Trimble or Durkan, conference told

It may be premature to write the political obituaries of Ulster Unionist leader David Trimble and SDLP leader Mark Durkan following poor showings at recent Assembly and European election polls, a conference will hear today.

A study carried out by a team of academics from the University of Ulster, Queen’s University, Oxford University and the London School of Economics revealed that Mr Trimble and Mr Durkan are the only political leaders to emerge with any cross-community trust.

Some 42% of respondents to the study said they would trust Mr Durkan to act in the best interests of all the people of Northern Ireland with 36% backing Mr Trimble to do the same. By contrast only 28% of respondents – and only 6% of nationalists – would trust Dr Ian Paisley.

The cross-community standing of Mr Trimble and Mr Durkan may be some consolation to the party leaders as the talks aimed at ending the impasse in the peace process continue.

Other important findings from the study which are pertinent to this week’s political talks include:

• Protestant disillusionment with the Agreement began almost as soon as the May 1998 referendum was over
• support for decommissioning has risen overall and is particularly noticeable among Catholics
• support for power-sharing has risen overall and is particularly noticeable among Protestants
• just over half of Protestants (53%) in 2003 believed that reform of the police had “gone too far”.

Professor Ian McAllister of the Australian National University, who will be speaking at the conference, said a clear common theme for everyone opposed to the Agreement was that it is perceived to be unfair.

He added: “Those who initially supported the Agreement in 1998 but have since turned against it appear to feel that the Assembly has not performed well enough – with its frequent suspensions – to retain their support.”

The study, which questioned voters after last year’s Assembly elections, found that a clear majority – including even a majority of SDLP supporters (51%) - felt that Sinn Fein had proved the most effective voice for nationalists.

The DUP emerged as the most effective voice for unionists, though by a narrower majority (55%). Only 58% of UUP supporters believed their own party was the most effective voice of unionists.

The study revealed that 13% of people who had voted for the UUP in 1998 have since defected to the DUP.

The SDLP is also facing a problem of ageing support with 68% of its voters being over 45 years of age.

Dr Paul Mitchell of the London School of Economics said: “If the peace process has very clearly been the handmaiden of Sinn Fein’s electoral success, there is a real risk that the making of the Agreement ultimately looks like being the highwater mark for the SDLP. Ever since they have been in decline and are in danger of going into freefall”.

(MB/GMCG)