NI Aiming To Upset The Odds In World Cup Qualifying

Northern Ireland's path to the 2026 World Cup in the United States, Canada and Mexico has been revealed, with the UEFA qualifiers draw placing them in a group of four.

Manager Michael O'Neill is cautiously optimistic about his side's chances of punching their ticket to the showpiece in North America despite the prospect of facing at least one continental powerhouse.

Northern Ireland will take on Slovakia, Luxembourg and one of Germany or Italy in their bid to qualify for the World Cup, but O'Neill is positive the Green and White Army have what it takes.

There is no denying that it'll be a massive challenge, considering Northern Ireland's record in the World Cup, but the odds might not be as steep as it appears.

The betting apps that welcome players from across the Emerald Isle do not rate Northern Ireland's chances of qualifying, but punters will still back them to achieve the feat.

Irish punters will back them to beat Slovakia and Luxembourg, and then pray to the betting gods that their team can topple either Germany or Italy.

Northern Ireland's Recent Form

Northern Ireland produced a grim performance during the 2024 European Championship qualifiers, winning just three of their ten games.

However, they signed off their campaign with an impressive 2-0 win over Denmark, and that success turned out to be a massive turning point.

After losing just one of their subsequent four international friendlies (W1, D2) - a 5-1 thrashing against eventual champions Spain - Northern Ireland took the Nations League by storm.

They lost just one of their six Nations League games ahead of the World Cup qualifiers - a disappointing 1-0 defeat against Bulgaria. However, they made up for it by handing the continental minnows a 5-0 thrashing at Windsor Park.

Northern Ireland picked up 11 points from six games to clinch qualification to League B, scoring 11 goals and conceding just three.

Even though none of their opponents ranked higher in the FIFA world rankings, their performances gave a glimpse of what to expect in the World Cup qualifiers.

The Draw: A Daunting Challenge or Huge Opportunity?

UEFA introduced a rule where teams paired with those featuring in the knockout stage of the Nations League are placed in groups of four rather than five. Northern Ireland falls under that category and will face Italy or Germany in the group phase. The continental powerhouses will square off in March, meaning Northern Ireland will not get the ball rolling on their qualifying campaign until September 2025.

Manager O'Neill appears unfazed by the prospect of being drawn in a group of four. He believes it will mitigate the risk of injuries, suspensions and fatigue.

“I think it suits us a little bit better,” O'Neill said, addressing the reduced fixture load. “It gives us more preparation time, and we would have taken this group before the draw.

“While the challenge is significant, the structure allows us to approach it with clarity and focus.

“Obviously, it's a huge challenge for us to finish top of the group, but there is a play-off route, and our Nations League performance has given us a chance.

“We know we'll be competitive in this group, and we have to focus on continuing the progression of the team.”

Northern Ireland Have a Fighting Chance

Sixteen UEFA nations will qualify for the 2026 World Cup. Whether it's a group of four or five, only the group winners are guaranteed an automatic slot in the 2026 World Cup.

Runners-up will enter the play-off bracket and go head-to-head for the final four slots, which might be Northern Ireland's best chance of booking their ticket to North America.

Regardless of whether it's Italy or Germany that joins the group, Northern Ireland will face one of the global elites in the group phase.

Germany and Italy have eight World Cup titles between them. Both sides have won four apiece, so if either drops into the group, they'd automatically be the bookmakers' favourites to finish top.

However, Northern Ireland still have a fighting chance. Slovakia and Luxembourg will also be tough to beat, but at least their presence levels the playing field for O'Neill's side to pick up crucial points.

Northern Ireland have hope of qualifying, even if they don't finish in the top two. Their performance in the Nations League offers them a potential safety net and an alternative route into the play-offs.

O'Neill also seems to have found a way to get the best out of his young team, so Northern Ireland have a decent chance of qualifying for the World Cup for the first time since 1986.