Political Stability Would Boost Commercial Sector – CBRE NI

Political stability would help boost Northern Ireland's commercial property sector, which continues to prove a draw for international and other investors due to its dual market access and its attractive rental yields, according to real estate firm CBRE NI.

Brian Lavery, addressing more than 400 attendees at the CBRE NI Real Estate Market Outlook in Belfast, said those underlying attributes, along with a number of others including a range of growth deals, a high quality of living and a burgeoning technology sector, mean the province has all the ingredients for "huge success" if politicians here can set aside their differences and get back to working effectively.

He praised progress on major infrastructure projects such as the new train and bus station at Weavers Cross but said other schemes aimed at improving water, transport and other services seem to be stuck in a political and funding impasse. Mr Lavery said a more stable political environment would help woo even more overseas investment in commercial property and attract occupiers looking to set up bases in Northern Ireland.

"We don't want to just continue talking about resilience, we believe it's now time to embrace change to move forward," he added. "There remains a strong appetite from investors across the board who are drawn to Northern Ireland due to its unique location as a gateway between the UK and EU.

"Furthermore, investors are attracted by Northern Ireland's yield arbitrage when compared to other cities across the UK and Ireland. While Belfast has all of the fundamentals to capture success in terms of investment in the commercial real estate sector going forward, there is no doubt that the region's attractiveness has been dulled by the current political uncertainty at Stormont."

Mr Lavery also spoke about the importance of sustainability at the event, saying that it is no longer a "corporate nice-to have" but a factor that will strongly influence the decisions or investors and occupiers.

"The ESG agenda poses one of the biggest challenges of 2023 and beyond, but also a huge opportunity," he said. "Funding for development projects will simply not be available if we do not comply with green building regulations, low carbon metrics and net-zero ambitions. Whilst there is an obvious capital cost, the long-term benefits of lower energy usage will be a significant benefit to occupiers, investors and our planet."

The event heard how investment in Northern Ireland's commercial property market continued apace last year despite worries around the rising cost of debt and gathering economic headwinds.

In total, £330 million was invested across 36 transactions in 2022, a lift from £290 million and 30 transactions respectively compared to the year previous, reflecting the highest level of investment since 2015.

Retail accounted for half of all transactions in 2022 while alternatives – commercial property which sit outside the traditional real estate sectors – was, for the first time, the second most active area with 22% of total transactions.

Buyers were represented across the spectrum, led by local investors who accounted for 47% of all transactions, followed by institutional investors who accounted for 34% and property companies with 19%.

CBRE NI also said that Northern Ireland's office market rebounded last year as occupiers seek to secure quality, energy-efficient space in a bid to hedge against energy inflation as well as retain and attract staff.

The office market recorded a bumper year in 2022 with take-up of 314,916 square feet across 53 separate transactions, a significant jump of 84% from 170,804 square feet in 2021 when Covid lockdowns had impacted demand.