Research Indicates Subdued NI Housing Market

Research has indicated a lethargic residential property market in Northern Ireland, continuing at a subdued rate of house price growth over the past five quarters.

The latest figures from Ulster University's Quarterly House Price Index demonstrate the effect of Brexit, the Stormont stalemate and prolonged political uncertainty on local buyer activity.

Produced in partnership with Progressive Building Society and the Northern Ireland Housing Executive, the research put the overall average house price at £161,990, representing a weighted level of growth of 0.9% between the second quarter of 2018 and 2019.

Estate agents' market observations during the second quarter of 2019 found that the absence of a Stormont executive, ongoing Brexit uncertainty and the political change in Westminster have continued to impact on market sentiment and buyer activity and confidence. Despite this, agents are optimistic the current sluggish market conditions will pick up in the coming six months. Further, it was highlighted that there remains an appetite in the market, particularly within the first time buyer segment, which seems more resilient to the ongoing political instability.

In the last quarter, 24% of lower price homes sold were below £100,000, while properties below £150,000 accounted for 58% of transactions, a 3% rise on the previous survey.

These statistics continue to suggest that there remains more traction at the lower end of the housing market across Northern Ireland. Overall, the analysis by price band continues to show a balanced housing market in Northern Ireland with price spreads virtually unchanged over the last few quarters.

Lead researcher at Ulster University, Dr Martin Hinch said: "The latest Ulster University quarterly house price report reveals a residential housing market that continues to display subdued levels of growth. Whilst this trend has been observed for the last 18 months the resilience of the NI market throughout this period of unprecedented prolonged political and economic uncertainty is apparent. Despite uncertainty around the potential implications of leaving the EU, the lack of a functioning Stormont executive and ongoing turmoil in Westminster, core transaction levels and sustainable market conditions continue to prevail."

Michael Boyd, Deputy Chief Executive and Finance Director at Progressive Building Society added: "These market conditions are being influenced by the Brexit process and the lack of an accountable local executive. However, there are still strong levels of transactions particularly with First Time Buyers who are taking advantage of affordable housing especially compared to the rest of the UK."

Karly Greene, Head of Research at the Northern Ireland Housing Executive, which commissions the research, said: "For a sixth consecutive quarter, Ulster University's analysis of the price of properties sold in Northern Ireland shows very little change at headline level. The high degree of overall stability in house prices reflects wider uncertainties but, as always, there is greater variation at local level and in different segments of the market. There is also evidence of some challenges for the first time buyers who have played an important role in driving the market over recent years."



(JG/MH)