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18/12/2003
NI population to grow by 92,000 over next 15 years
The population of Northern Ireland is likely to increase by about 92,000 (5.4%) by 2017.
This is according to the latest figures projected by the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency.
The new figures show that by 2017, the population is likely to grow to 1.788 million from 1.697 million in 2002. This is equivalent to an average annual rate of growth of 0.3%. Longer-term projections suggest the population will peak around 1.840 million in the early 2030s and then start to fall gradually.
The net increase of 92,000 people between 2002 and 2017 is attributable to a natural increase (the difference between the numbers of births and deaths) of 100,000, partially counterbalanced by 8,000 net outward migration.
The population will gradually become older with the average age expected to rise from 36.6 years in 2002 to 39.9 years by 2017.
In 2002 there were 166,000 more children aged under 16 than adults aged 65 or over. The number of older people is expected to exceed the number of children from 2024 onwards.
The number of children aged under 16 is projected to fall by 12.3% from 393,000 in 2002 to 345,000 in 2017 and continue to decrease gradually thereafter.
The number of people of pensionable age (as currently defined, aged 60+ for females, 65+ for males) is projected to increase from 266,000 in 2002 to 350,000 by 2017, an increase of 31.%.
(MB)
This is according to the latest figures projected by the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency.
The new figures show that by 2017, the population is likely to grow to 1.788 million from 1.697 million in 2002. This is equivalent to an average annual rate of growth of 0.3%. Longer-term projections suggest the population will peak around 1.840 million in the early 2030s and then start to fall gradually.
The net increase of 92,000 people between 2002 and 2017 is attributable to a natural increase (the difference between the numbers of births and deaths) of 100,000, partially counterbalanced by 8,000 net outward migration.
The population will gradually become older with the average age expected to rise from 36.6 years in 2002 to 39.9 years by 2017.
In 2002 there were 166,000 more children aged under 16 than adults aged 65 or over. The number of older people is expected to exceed the number of children from 2024 onwards.
The number of children aged under 16 is projected to fall by 12.3% from 393,000 in 2002 to 345,000 in 2017 and continue to decrease gradually thereafter.
The number of people of pensionable age (as currently defined, aged 60+ for females, 65+ for males) is projected to increase from 266,000 in 2002 to 350,000 by 2017, an increase of 31.%.
(MB)
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