Exit polls - SF edge SDLP, but unionist battle too close to call

Sinn Fein will edge the SDLP as the largest nationalist party in the assembly and the DUP and UUP will claim a broadly equal share of the unionist vote, according to exit polls taken last night.

The exit polls suggested that Sinn Fein had clung on to their slight lead established over the SDLP at the 2001 general election, and the two main unionist parties were almost indivisible.

The count, which began at 9am this morning at stations across Northern Ireland, could confirm the first of the Assembly's 108 seats by lunchtime today – although the full picture may not become clear until tomorrow morning.

One exit poll of 1,500 voters taken at 90 polling stations found: 25% support for the DUP and UUP; 20% support for Sinn Fein; 16% support for the SDLP; and 5% support for Alliance, with the smaller parties claiming the rest.

It is the fight between the DUP and UUP that has dominated the headlines in the election run in, and which will surely command most comment after the results are known.

Voter turnout was down, thought to between 50% and 60% which is someway off the 69% that went to the polls in 1998. That will not be good news for the UUP, which had stressed the importance of a strong turnout from moderates throughout their campaign.

Observers point to the moderate vote – around one-sixth of the unionist electorate – that endorsed the Good Friday Agreement, but which has since stayed away from the polling booths for council and general elections, as crucial to preserving the UUP's pre-eminence within the unionist constituency.

The disestablishment of the assembly, now languishing in suspension for more than a year, and bitter divisions within the UUP over the implementation of the agreement (which saw the dissenting triumvirate of MPs Donaldson, Burnside and Smyth taken to task by the party) may not entice those voters back to the polls.

Some observers suggest that the key lies with whomever attracts votes from the smaller, largely hardline, unionist parties which are expected to be squeezed out of the assembly.

Before suspension, the UUP had 26 seats, the SDLP 23, DUP 21, Sinn Fein 18, Alliance 6, and the smaller parties shared 14 seats.

(gmcg)