NI Economy Set For 'Fragile Growth'

Northern Ireland's economy is set for only "fragile growth" for the rest of 2013, according to a new report from Danske Bank.

Despite the UK’s 1st Quarter growth rate coming in higher than forecast, the latest Quarterly Sectoral Forecast report published by Danske Bank shows economic activity levels in Northern Ireland will increase by only 0.4% over the entire year.

The report notes that the short-term outlook remains challenging, with a very slow and gradual recovery, but economic growth rates should reach 1.7% per cent in 2014.

Danske Bank Chief Economist Angela McGowan said: "Despite pockets of good news, particularly around inward investment announcements, the headline data depicts an economy in virtual standstill this year. Local job losses have continued to inch upwards and economic output levels are relatively static, but some sectors are achieving stronger than average levels of growth."

The best performing sectors continue to be those that can take advantage of international trade.

The ICT sector is expected to grow by 3.5% this year and by over 5% next year.

Despite the horse meat scandal and a harsh winter, the local agricultural sector shows promise.

Although Danske Bank’s latest growth forecast for agriculture in 2013 has been revised downwards from 3.4% to 2.7%, the growth rate for this sector still remains above average.

Manufacturing also continues to perform well with the latest report forecasting growth of 1.6%.

But while small increases in employment are expected in Quarter 1 and Quarter 2 this year, numbers are forecast to level off.

Improvements in manufacturing output in 2014 and 2015 will largely be driven by increased productivity rather than rising employment levels.

Ms McGowan said: "Northern Ireland’s manufacturing base is very reliant on a small number of large firms so a sustained global recovery this year will undoubtedly influence the overall performance of the sector.

"Local business confidence is also extremely important for any sector’s performance, so it augers well for the local manufacturing base to hear that business confidence as well as sales growth have improved for this sector."

"In addition, 2013 presents an array of economic opportunities for Northern Ireland. Events like the World Police and Fire Games, the G8 Summit and the City of Culture will all deliver customers to our doorstep this year so a degree of support for the hospitality as well as the Arts and Recreation sectors should be expected."

(IT/CD)