Cross-Border Trade Slowing Fast

The flow of cross-border shopping - which has for years been the lifeblood of border traders - has been dramatically reduced.

Anecdotal evidence from places like Newry City in South Down has now been officially confirmed in a new report that shows how South-North shopping has "slowed to a trickle". Inter Trade Ireland said the number of cars with southern registrations being recorded coming across the border has now fallen to the lowest level since September 2008.

Independently produced surveys used by the cross-border 'think-tank' cover shopping centres in Newry, Enniskillen, Banbridge and Strabane.

In early 2009 at peak hours almost 70% of cars could have southern registrations, but this had now fallen to about 45%.

They said that recent changes to VAT rates in the UK have now closed the fiscal gap between the two jurisdictions.

Previous figures from Dublin's official Central Statistics Office (CSO) quarterly National Household Survey examined retailing in Northern Ireland and underlined how shoppers were then flooding north.

The Dáil Government used the survey to gain a more accurate picture of the extent of the damage cross-border shopping was doing to them and to validate estimates made by their Revenue Commissioners in their report on 'The Implications of Cross-Border Shopping for the Irish Exchequer',

That report was then the first significant attempt to measure the impact of cross-border sales since 1988 and was carried out following a request by the Irish Minister for Finance Brian Lenihan last year.

It found that shoppers from the Republic spent between €350 million and €550 million in Northern Ireland in 2008.

Irish Exchequer losses in terms of VAT and excise duties that year were estimated at up to €56 million to reach €72 million in 2009 "if the increase in cross-border spending this year matches the report's higher forecasts and reaches €700 million".

Now, the latest 2010 figures show that a third less southern cross-border shoppers are being recorded as the price gap between Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic narrows.

This is therefore excellent news for Dublin but not so for Newry and other towns and cities that have reaped the bonanza over the past few years.

See: Cross Border Shopping Fears Hit Southern Exchequer

(BMcC/KMcA)